Liberals play abandon the leader

This election is even harder to get excited about than most in recent years. It is not immediately clear why it is happening at all: Almost all the likely issues are trivial, and there is little prospect that the questions that should be the subject of serious and thoughtful public debate will receive any such attention.

The polls indicate that there will not be much change in the status quo. Even if there are efforts to revive the hoary-headed spectral monster of a three-party coalition to oust the Conservatives, the public will not stand for participation of the separatist Bloc Québécois in the federal government. It was on this issue that the Liberals jettisoned Stéphane Dion and brought in Michael Ignatieff with such indecent haste that there was no time for the inane niceties of a convention. For him to emulate Dion in death-defying coalition-building would only replicate the ignominy of Dion's exit.

A strictly bilateral Liberal-NDP coalition or understanding would be feasible, but that would require a combination of Liberal-NDP gains and Conservative losses totaling over 30. That would require a more inept campaign by the government and/or a much more talented and alluring campaign by one or both federalist opposition parties than recent performance indicates is likely. The government is not especially popular, and has few arresting personalities, but it is competent and the Liberal-NDP-Bloc effort to paint it as harsh, uncaring, and a regime of Jurassic troglodytes in sheeps' clothing has deservedly failed to convince anyone.

It is not an illiberal administration in any respect except the insane prison-building and prison-visitor-baiting policy. And it is piquant that one of the issues that the opposition is trying to inflate is the undoubted government flimflam to Parliament about the cost of their fatuous and primitive "road map" for enhanced public security. It is such a half-witted lunge for dumb-on-crime votes that aren't going elsewhere anyway, that the tenacity of the government on the issue does induce wonderment.

But otherwise, it has been a competent government that has much more credibility than its opponents, all standing on each other's shoulders like awkward circus acrobats. It isn't a naturally popular government, lacking the personalities and foibles that endear it to the country; without the stylish flamboyance and confidence of a Trudeau or the avuncular, good-natured, fly by the seat-of-the pants amiability of a Pearson, or the everyman populist affectations of Chrétien. But it has not tried to sell itself as fuzzy and cuddle-worthy; only as competent, un-embarrassing, and not deplorable. Those are reasonable claims. The opposition effort to paint the Harper government as a dehumanized, scandal-ridden, despotism is rubbish.

Bev Oda had every right to withhold funds from Kairos, given its attitude toward Israel. And while her explanation of it was lame, contempt of Parliament is a severe retribution on its face, diluted only by the fact that Parliament, by its conduct and composition, is not now such a respected institution as to make that judgment, voted on a straight partisan division, as onerous as it sounds. Underestimating the cost of spending programs such as the F-35 fighter aircraft and the redundant new prisons almost always occurs; there is no evidence that it is more mendacious than optimistic in at least the defence case, and almost any build-up of Canadian military strength is necessary and worthwhile. The problem with the prisons is that it is the policy itself, not misrepresentation to Parliament.

The burning question is why the opposition is precipitating this election. I have no standing to guess if Jack Layton's medical condition plays a role (and hope that it is stable and improving). I think Gilles Duceppe has become waterlogged from drinking his own bath water; and between imputing reticence about abortion to a popish plot and preveniently warning the chancelleries of the world of the impending independence of Quebec, he assumes his position invulnerable. It need not be: As I have written here before, the federalist parties should nominate a single candidate in each Quebec riding, of whichever party ran first in that constituency in the last election. But this would likely give the Conservatives an overall majority, so it won't happen.

I am afraid the reason for the election is that the Liberals have given up on their leader; that they have not adjusted to the fact that they are no longer the natural party of government, and won't have a tribal vote from Quebec any more, with a pendant Ontario majority buying the Liberal mythos of indispensable conservators of federalism; and that they think if they can just change leaders again, they will win, because that was their habit for so long.

Since the government is in the grey zone between being popular and unpopular, and Ignatieff has performed well below expectations, he could suddenly raise his game and be a refreshing surprise. But as the Liberals trail the Conservatives by 66 MP's (and even if they made important gains, they would be at the expense of all the parties), a Liberal victory is a long shot, even if a Liberal-NDP majority is not so far-fetched.

Meanwhile, if Ignatieff doesn't get any traction, it would not be difficult to imagine the Conservatives gaining the eleven MP's necessary for a majority, especially as there are now three vacancies and two independents, including the mistreated Conservative castaway Helena Guergis.

A further word about the Prime Minister: He is the first person who has had to found his own party to win a federal election since John A. Macdonald, has won two of the three election campaigns he has conducted, has made very few mistakes, has governed with crisp efficiency and common sense in somewhat perturbed times, and is respected by foreign leaders. He has never embarrassed himself or the country. This is not the CV of someone about to be given the order of the boot. He didn't ask for this election; the opposition did, and not for very creditable reasons. Harper should win and deserves to win, unless he blows up in the clutch, and nothing in his career incites much expectation of that. But if Ignatieff fulfills some of his long-interred and almost forgotten potential, it might at least be an enlightening election between capable leaders who could strengthen the two-party system and keep their jobs. That is probably the best we can hope for.

National Post
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